We are interested in studying how physical processes after plankton production in the ocean. Our approach is to develop simple coupled biological/physical models and explore the interaction between physical transport and biological production processes. 

(1) The Chesapeake Bay

Current efforts to predict the impact of targeted reductions in nutrient loading to the Chesapeake Bay rely exclusively on a coupled physical-water quality model developed by the U.S. Army Corp of Engineers. Uncertainties in the model predictions are large and we are at risk of imposing economically expensive regulations based upon uncertain model predictions. We are developing a community model of the Chesapeake Bay and make it available to the scientific and management communities. This project is done in collaboration with Drs. Raleigh Hood and Bill Boicourt at Horn Point Lab and managers at NOAA NERR sites.

 

Algal biomass and dissolved oxygen are the two quantities that dominate the water quality issue in the Chesapeake Bay. We are developing a marine ecosystem/water quality model that consists of three inter-connected parts: (1) a pelagic planktonic ecosystem model that has nutrients, phytoplankton, zooplankton and detritus compartments; (2) a simple benthic model that parameterizes biogeochemical transformation processes in the benthic boundary layer; and (3) an oxygen model for simulating oxygen dynamics in the water column.

(2) Georgia-Fuca estuary

As the figure below shows, both phytoplankton and zooplankton populations in the Georgia-Fuca estuary show large year-year fluctuations. To understand this interannual variability, we coupled a NPZ model with the box model for the Strait of Georgia and Juan de Fuca Strait. We found that plankton production is insensitive to interannual variability in River runoff but is sensitive to small changes in intrinsic biological parameters.